Intel’s supply constraints will be a non issue compared to what new constraints the Cloud/Hyperscalers bean counters will put on expenditures as the economy takes a hit from the pandemic. So there will be a corresponding drop in that buy CPUs at any cost because the mad server market/services growth rates will quickly amortize that cost and then only gravy afterwards market will turn so Scrooge McDuck pinny pinch that even Intel’s large war chest may be insufficient to stop the bleeding.

The layoffs at Intel will come at an ever greater rate as the only way to survive on thin margins and not totally drain the cash reserves is via big middle management/nonessential employee cuts any way possible as Intel can not afford to reduce its worker bees too much in the face of such massive competition. Engineers will once again represent a larger percentage of Intel’s staffing while the rest will be tossed under the nearest bus. So that mostly looks like some MBAs and other such non necessary for product development/production staffing will get the first cuts from that even larger axe about to be swung.

AMD is a very lean operation and is really going to be OK in any downturn and is already above water on a gross margin rate that Intel could never manage. And and AMD’s modular CCD die/wafer production yield able to give AMD so much more pricing latitude that even Intel’s Contra Revenue spigot wide open could not take back much before it’s too late. And Intel has more other competition including Micron’s QuantX XPoint offerings and other competition across all of Intel’s market segments. And speaking of segments Intel’s byzantine array of CPU product segmentation schemes is another thing to go and that’s one that can not logically continue if demand dries up.

Wow a few years back Intel was mothballing fabs and all in on 10nm but even its current market records will not suffice if its 10nm folly and Fab wafer starts shortages issues are solved by market demand drying up. That’s going to become mostly a replacement CPU market and customers in the mood for the best of the bargains that AMD will have no problems providing in addition to all that is other and non x86 in the market as well.
Intel employees will have to be seriously polishing up their CVs as that’s most prudent and find some employer that’s lean and in a growing market position if at all possible in a recessionary environment.